Incumbent member for Lyne Dr David Gillespie first swept to power in the 2013 federal election, winning an absolute majority in the wake of independent Rob Oakeshott’s retirement.
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Tomorrow he’ll attempt for the first time to defend his seat.
In an electorate considered a National Party stronghold, many are tipping him to be successful.
These include betting agencies such as Sportsbet, which have installed Dr Gillespie as an unbackable favourite at $1.01.
The next closest are his immediate rivals, Labor’s Peter Alley and the Greens’ Julie Lyford (both $26).
The Christian Democratic Party’s Elaine Carter is next on $101, while independents Rodger Riach and Brad Christensen are both out at $151.
While the betting odds may seem against them, there’s a range of reasons for competing candidates to feel optimistic about their own chances.
Labor and the Greens in particular will hope that a 19.8 per cent swing away from the Nationals during the 2015 State election translates to the federal arena.
Another potential benefit for these challenging parties will be the redistributed boundary of Lyne, which sees Port Macquarie shifted north to the electorate of Cowper.
The shift south also means that the Lyne electorate has picked up Forster, Bulahdelah and Dungog, which were all previously part of the Paterson electorate.
Candidates attempting to wrest the seat away from Dr Gillespie will hope their own messages appeal to mainstream Lyne.
Labor candidate Mr Alley will hope a pre-election mantra of health and school funding will appeal to the masses of the Lyne electorate.
Ms Lyford for the Greens will rely on strong support from her hometown of Gloucester and local opposition to mining and coal gas exploration.
The Christian Democratic Party’s Elaine Carter will look to capitlise on the conservative vote, while Mr Christensen and Mr Riach, like the majority of independent candidates around the country, will look to tap into voter discontent with the major parties. Mr Christensen will hope Manning voters remember his work as a Greater Taree City Councillor, serving until the State-forced amalgamations in May.
Election results for Lyne are expected to be known by early Saturday evening.
