Global carbon emissions are set to surge back to near pre-pandemic levels, according to new research which has sparked fresh warnings about the need for urgent and sustained cuts to pollution.
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But a separate analysis has offered some hope in the climate fight, showing that global warming could be kept below 2 degrees if countries deliver on the promises which they've presented at the Glasgow climate summit.
While that is still above the 1.5 degree threshold which world leaders are hoping to keep within reach at the COP26 summit, it is a marked improvement on the 2.7 temperature rise trajectory which was forecast just weeks ago.
World leaders including Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison have now departed Scotland, leaving senior officials and ministers to negotiate a new global climate agreement over the coming week.
Amid those negotiations, a new report has highlighted the scale of the task to bring down emissions to the level needed to contain global warming.
Global emissions dropped 5.4 per cent in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced countries around the world into lockdown.
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The new report from the Global Carbon Project shows that drop has proven to be temporary, with emissions set to increase almost 5 per cent in 2021.
China's emissions are set to rise 4 per cent on 2020 levels, which would make it accountable for more than 30 per cent of global carbon pollution. Emissions in the US, EU and India are also expected to rise.
The figures exclude international transport, including air travel.
The researchers have warned that if emissions continued at 2021 levels, there was a 50 per chance that the 1.5 degree threshold would be breached in 2032.
In order to reach net zero emissions by 2050, carbon pollution cuts at a similar scale to those during the pandemic would need to be replicated every year.
"This highlights the scale of the action that is now required, and hence the importance of the COP26 discussions," University of Exeter professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study, said.
Meanwhile, a separate report from research firm Climate Resource says pledges made at the summit have for the first time put the planet on a path to limiting global warming below 2 degrees this century.
That marks a significant shift from just two weeks ago, when the UN's latest analysis of commitments made by signatories to the Paris Agreement predicted temperature rise could reach 2.7 degrees by the end of the century.
The Climate Resource forecast is largely the result of policies announced since then by the world's largest emitters, China and India.
India this week announced it would pursue net zero emissions by 2070, while China - whose president Xi Jinping didn't show up to Glasgow - made a modest update to its previous climate action commitments.
China has promised that emissions will peak before 2030, en route to carbon neutrality before 2060.
Back in Australia, The Reserve Bank and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority have flagged the global transition to lower emissions will have an impact on the economy, urging financial institutions to properly assess the underlying risk.
In a statement on Thursday, both regulators claimed climate abatement policies would impact the value of certain assets and income streams, which will heighten financial stability risks.
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"APRA and the RBA recognise that actions to minimise the environmental impact of their own operations are important and will contribute to broader climate goals," the statement reads.
"Both APRA and the RBA have been building capacity to conduct analysis and research on these issues, and are actively considering the steps that can be taken to achieve their respective mandates in view of climate-related risks."
Gerard Cockburn
Dan Jervis-Bardy
Dan covers federal politics from Parliament House, with a special focus on climate policy and the NDIS. He has previously reported on ACT politics and urban affairs since joining the Canberra Times in 2018.
Dan covers federal politics from Parliament House, with a special focus on climate policy and the NDIS. He has previously reported on ACT politics and urban affairs since joining the Canberra Times in 2018.
